Photo: Prakhar Pandey
While Haryana broke all records in coming out to vote in an election where people seem to have voted for change, Gurgaon as usual lagged behind, though thankfully a large number of people came out and voted at the end of the day. The polling started at a very low note in both Gurgaon and Badshahpur - unlike during the Lok Sabha polls, when the Aam Aadmi Party had enthused the urbanites and brought them out in large numbers. With polling being slow in the morning even in urban villages, only 30 per cent had cast their vote by noon. In DLF Phase 3 the turnout was abysmal. Prem Bhatia, a resident of Sushant Lok Phase 1, said that while there still was enthusiasm, this time there was no wave – maybe because the ‘main job’ (of changing the Congress at the Centre) was already taken care of. "The educated elite also seem to have little interest in local leaders and politicians, and are even fairly insensitive to local issues,” added Bhatia. It seems that these urbanites have gone back to their erstwhile behaviour – of hoping and wishing for change, without getting their hands wet (or even their fingers inked). However, the residents of Wazirabad village had lined up in large number at the start of the day itself. Sunil Yadav, a resident, said that people in the Village had voted in large number for the BJP, and they are hoping that this will ultimately contribute to the emergence of Rao Inderjit Singh as the CM candidate. This time the Yadavs of South Haryana are fairly confident that the State will see a CM from their region - which has seen little development. The villagers also want to punish the Congress for siding with the builders, and alleged that both the individual as well as village land had been usurped by unscrupulous people with the blessings of the Hooda government. While Wazirabad seemed to root for BJP, there was also good support for INLD, which had fielded veteran leader Gopi Chand Gehlot, who had earlier won the Gurgaon seat as an Independent MLA. The migrants mostly seem to have voted for the BJP as, outside of their home States, they wish to identify more with the national parties. The individual candidate seems to have mattered less, which should benefit Umesh Aggarwal as well as Rao Narbir Singh (not the most popular of BJP candidates, from Gurgaon and Badshahpur respectively). What seems surprising is that Gopi Chand Gehlot, of the INLD, a Party that has little presence in ‘private’ colonies and is identified mainly with Jaats, has also got good support in these areas; INLD was active in all the booths. The Congress is basically banking on the support from the Punjabis and Banias, to ensure the victory of Dharambir Gaba. Sukhbir Kataria, the sitting MLA of Gurgaon, against whom a number of cases of bogus voting have been filed, also performed strongly in his pocket borough of Gurgaon village, the colonies around the IAF Depot area, and also some of the unauthorised colonies. His performance, and that of Gaje Singh Kablana, another Independent who rebelled from the INLD, could play an important role in the final count - though it is being expected that the Modi visit and charisma could help Aggarwal sail through finally. Despite the BJP getting average support from ‘new’ Gurgaon, it has been strengthened by the consolidation of the Yadav vote – ostensibly made possible through the tireless efforts of a large number of supporters of Rao Inderjit Singh, the sitting Gurgaon MP and Union Minister. Rao Inderjit belatedly gave his blessings to Umesh Aggarwal; his choice had earlier been rejected by the Party. BJP seemed particularly strong in areas like Rajiv Nagar, Acharya Puri and the colonies around Sadar Bazar. However, in the core trader-dominated areas of Sadar Bazaar, the voters were divided - despite BJP traditionally having a strong Bania connect. Aggarwal should be thankful to Modi, who has probably swung many ‘on-the-fence’ voters. The youth in Gurgaon have particularly been supporting the BJP, because few job opportunities have come their way during the Congress regime. Even the Jaats in South Haryana and Gurgaon villages have failed to get jobs or support from the Hooda government, which has rankled their hearts. However, probably the most important factor that will decide the outcome, will be whether the Punjabi voters (who are present in large numbers) have united behind Dharambir Gaba, who was given the mandate by the Congress at the last hour. While the Congress gambled on him based on his past record, this time he may not be able to get the entire community vote. Activity around the Punjabi colonies like New Colony, 4/8 marla, Arjun Nagar and areas around it revealed that, while some had come around to supporting the Punjabi candidate, the overall enthusiasm for Gaba was not very strong. The large turnout in the Punjabi belt seemed equally divided between the Congress and the BJP, with a large number of youth asserting that this time they were voting for growth and development. Old hands said that while the Congress voters seemed silent and invisible, their numbers will count, as the Punjabis want their candidate to win. Rajesh Dutta, who voted in New Colony, asserted that the Gurgaon seat has traditionally belonged to Punjabis, and they have faced a lot of difficulties because of the current Independent MLA. "We want Gaba to win this time, despite his age", asserted Dutta. His mood was however not shared by the rest of the youth standing near the polling booth, who said that they wanted the BJP to win. Supporters of Gaje Kablana could also be found in some of the Punjabi colonies; and in the IAF Depot area they swear by his name. Ravi Thakur, a resident of Ashok Vihar said that Kablana comes to the rescue of people whenever there is a problem, and he should win this seat. In sum, it appears that Umesh Aggarwal of the BJP, Gopi Chand Gehlot of INLD and Dharambir Gaba of Congress are the top 3 contenders for the Gurgaon seat.
In Badshahpur, both Rakesh Doultabad of the INLD and Mukesh Sharma, Independent are also strong contenders. There are 80,000 Yadav votes in this constituency, and 55,000 Jaats, along with a substantial number of Brahmins - who are unhappy with the BJP for not having given the ticket to a Brahmin candidate in any of the constituencies in Gurgaon district. Mukesh Sharma, who fought from the Party ticket in the last polls, rebelled from the BJP and stood as an Independent candidate; while Doultabad, who performed well as an Independent last time got the INLD mandate. Doulatabad has managed a sizeable support of the Jaats in this constituency, and from Palam Vihar and Sectors 21, 22 & 23. INLD has even got support from the ‘posh’ areas of the Badshahpur constituency. Poll analysts said that this was due to the personal rapport of Doultabad, who has been working hard across the constituency. Mukesh Sharma, the Independent, has also managed to get support from various segments – cutting across caste. He has managed to even stir the sizeable Brahmin population in Badshahpur. However, the triangular contest in the constituency might help the BJP most, which has fielded a Yadav candidate - Rao Narbir Singh. While Gurgaon is branded as a Punjabi constituency, Badshahpur is an Ahir (Yadav)-dominated constituency, which has elected Rao Dharampal, and others from the community repeatedly. A good number of the Yadavs in Badshahpur, despite not being supporters of Narbir, seem to have come around and voted for the BJP, because they wanted the seat to be won by a Yadav. This is despite the fact that Narbir is a known detractor of the Gurgaon MP and UnionMinister, Rao Inderjit, who remained absent from this constituency. The ‘ahirs’ in particular seem to have voted for Narbir in large numbers. Congress candidate Virender Singh, son of sitting MLA Rao Dharampal, is also expected to get a good chunk of votes from the traditional Congress voters as well as Yadavs who have supported his father. His success will directly weaken the BJP leader. The final victory will depend on the interplay of the Jaat and Ahir votes. A BJP victory would mark a new era in this State’s politics, which has been dominated by local parties and the Congress over the last many decades. The State has never voted for the BJP en bloc. Whatever the result on October 19, democracy has won - the State has polled a record 76 per cent. The voters in Gurgaon need to learn from their counterparts in other parts of the State, and help strengthen democracy at all levels – perhaps by acting more and talking less. Their deeds need to match their words.
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